Tariffs have always been more than just taxes on imports. They are political levers, economic shock absorbers, and, when mishandled, costly compliance headaches for companies trying to operate globally. Now, with the Supreme Court set to hear arguments in November on Trump’s 2025 tariffs, many in the defense, space, and technology industries are asking the same question: what happens next?
At Maribod Global, we can’t predict the Court’s decisions, but we can help you prepare for the possible outcomes. Here’s what companies like yours should be watching.
Why these specific tariffs are in the spotlight
President Trump’s 2025 tariffs are different from previous trade measures. Using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), he imposed two sweeping categories: “trafficking tariffs” on goods from Canada, China, and Mexico, and “reciprocal tariffs” with a minimum 10% duty (up to 50%) on products from virtually all other countries.
The problem? Lower courts aren’t buying it. A federal district judge struck them down in May. The Court of International Trade did the same. In August, the Federal Circuit upheld those rulings 7-4, saying Congress doesn’t give presidents tariff power through vague emergency statutes.
Now the Supreme Court gets the final word.
What’s at stake for space, defense, and technology companies
- Cost Structures – If the Court upholds the tariffs, supply chains relying on specialized aerospace components, satellite parts, or advanced manufacturing inputs will face sustained higher costs. One small business in the case is looking at $100 million in 2025 tariff costs, 45 times what they paid in 2024.
- Market Access – If the Court strikes down the tariffs, you get immediate cost relief, but retaliatory tariffs from trading partners could also shift. That directly affects companies planning to expand into Europe, Asia, or new launch markets.
- Compliance Complexity – Regardless of the ruling, tariff classifications, country-of-origin requirements, and recordkeeping will remain under scrutiny. Errors can still result in penalties, reputational damage, or lost contracts.
- Policy Precedent – The decision will either reinforce presidential emergency powers in trade, or signal that future administrations face tighter constitutional constraints.
Preparing your company now
The timeline is actually clearer than most trade disputes. Government briefs are due September 19, challenger responses by October 20, with oral arguments starting November 3. A decision will likely come by spring 2026.
But here’s the reality: compliance obligations won’t get simpler overnight, regardless of how the Court rules. If anything, the transition period after a ruling could create more confusion as companies adjust to new rules.
At Maribod Global, we recommend companies take three practical steps now:
- Map your exposure: Identify which products, components, or technologies in your supply chain are most tariff-sensitive under current rules.
- Scenario plan: Model how your operations adapt whether tariffs are upheld, modified, or eliminated entirely.
- Strengthen compliance records: Courts may disagree on policy, but the obligation to classify correctly and maintain accurate documentation never disappears.
Our perspective
For emerging companies in the defense, space, and advanced technology sectors, tariffs are more than line items on a budget, they influence launch timelines, partnership negotiations, and international expansion strategies. The Supreme Court’s decision will not eliminate the complexity, but it will shift where that complexity sits: in presidential emergency powers, in Congressional oversight, or in your day-to-day compliance program.
Maribod Global helps you stay ready for whichever path the Court takes. With 20 years of experience guiding companies through ITAR, EAR, sanctions, and trade disputes, our mission is to give you the clarity and confidence to expand globally without being blindsided by regulatory change.
